Capital Sentiment Phases

Understanding Capital Sentiment Phases

The Capital Sentiment Phases chart shows how Bitview's capital sentiment model reads the Bitcoin market on a given day. The model sorts each day into one of ten named phases along a bear-to-bull spectrum: Deep Bear, Bear, Early Bear, Limbo, Early Bull, Weak Bull, Cautious Bull, Bull, Hopeful Bull and Raging Bull. The lower pane is that classification, drawn as a step line with the phase named on the axis and in the tooltip.

How It Works

The model also publishes a coarser capital sentiment score that groups the same ten phases into four readings: -2 across the bear phases, -1 in Limbo, and +1 or +2 across the bull phases. That score only ever changes on a day the phase itself changes, so charting it beside the phase strip would draw the same signal twice. The upper pane plots Score 1y Average instead: the 365-day simple moving average of that score.

Averaging a full year turns a step signal into a continuous one. A positive average means the past year sat mostly in the model's bull phases. A negative average means it sat mostly in Limbo or the bear phases. The Bitcoin price line on the right-hand logarithmic axis is context, so a phase change can be placed against what price was doing at the time.

How to Read It

Read the lower strip for the current state. It is the phase the model assigns to that day, and it snaps from one phase to the next. Read the upper line for the slower picture. Because it averages 365 days, it turns well after the strip does and holds its direction through short interruptions, so the two panes disagree through a turn by design.

Gaps in the early history are days the model has not classified, not a neutral reading. The phases describe past and current conditions. They are a classification, not a forecast.