UTXO Realized Price Distribution

Understanding UTXO Realized Price Distribution

Every UTXO carries the price at which it last moved on-chain — its cost basis, also called its realized price. UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) groups Bitcoin's entire circulating supply into price buckets by that cost basis and draws how much BTC sits in each bucket. A tall bar means a large amount of supply last changed hands at that price.

How It Works

The histogram is built from live UTXO age-cohort data and always shows the latest daily snapshot — the data source keeps no history for this distribution, so there is no playback of past dates. The current Bitcoin price is drawn into the bars themselves rather than as a line across them. Every bar whose cost basis sits below spot is supply held in profit and keeps the orange fill; every bar at or above spot is supply held at a loss and is drawn in a muted grey. The key beside the weighting buttons names both colours, and the spot price itself is in the snapshot panel under the chart.

The default view opens just past the lowest cost-basis bucket, which collects early supply that has never moved since and is large enough to set the whole vertical scale on its own. Drag the navigator strip below the chart out to the left edge to bring that bucket back into view.

The weighting toggle changes what each bar counts. Raw counts each BTC equally. Cointime-weighted and Coinflow-weighted apply the cointime-economics view of supply, which weights coins by their dormancy and movement — economically active supply stands out and long-dormant coins carry less weight. The cohort selector restricts the histogram to UTXOs of a chosen age, from under an hour to over fifteen years, alongside the standard short-term and long-term holder split.

How to Read It

Dense clusters of supply below spot often behave as support: many holders bought there and defend their cost basis. Heavy supply above spot marks overhead resistance, where underwater holders may sell into a recovery. The most informative region is usually the dense band nearest spot, because a small move in price flips a large amount of supply between profit and loss.